When the Patriots (6-4) travel to play against the Falcons (4-5) to open NFL Week 11 on “Thursday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video), they’ll be looking to stay warm with their fifth straight win. While New England want to keep winning to improve their chances of qualifying for the AFC playoffs, the Falcons want to avoid a demise from the NFC wildcard race.
Rookie Mac Jones looks good in QB for the Patriots with the running game and defense playing at the top level as well. Veteran Falcons counterpart Matt Ryan is grappling with an inconsistent season given his weapons dwindling in a new offense.
Will the Patriots continue to roll or will the Falcons “lift up” to get off the mat, like they did against the Saints two weeks ago?
Here’s everything you need to know about Patriots vs Falcons betting in Week 11, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Thursday Night Football”.
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS: Against the spread | Directly
Patriots vs Falcons odds for Thursday night football
- Disseminate: Patriots by 6.5
- Above / Below: 47.5
- Cash : -290, +235
The Patriots became slightly larger favorites from the initial 6-point line in their favor. The Falcons don’t have much offensively and the Patriots have been almost dominant defensively, adding to the lower points total.
(betting odds by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Historic Patriots vs. Falcons Streak
The teams have only met 15 times, with the Patriots having a 9-6 advantage. They met in the 2017 regular season with the Patriots winning 23-7 in a Super Bowl 51 rematch, in which the Patriots erased a late 28-3 deficit to secure another ring with Tom Brady. The Patriots have played six straight games in the series, following a four-game winning run for the Falcons
Three trends to know
—77 percent of punters spread think the Falcons are better than that as a home underdog and like them to cover inside a touchdown.
—57 percent of over / under bettors think the point total is too low given the Patriots offense is on fire and the Falcons can score garbage with Ryan.
—The Patriots are 6-4 ATS and 6-4 in a row in their last 10 games, the total topping in half of them. The Falcons are 4-6 ATS and 4-6 SU in their last 10 games. The total has exceeded six times this period.
Three things to watch out for
Who will direct the ball for the Patriots?
The Patriots have searing rookie Rhamdondre Stevenson, but Damien Harris was cleared to play to join him to make him a powerful 1-2 punch down the backfield. Expect the Falcons to stop the race and force Jones to beat them down the road. Still, the Patriots should remain effective in rushing no matter what to open things up all the way for Jones.
Who will catch the ball for the Falcons?
The Falcons traded Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley, who was to be their best wide receiver, takes a personal break from the game. They will also be without second tight end Hayden Hurst (ankle) for the game and wide receiver / running back Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle), their best and most dynamic offensive weapon of the entire season for new coach Arthur Smith, is a decision to be made during the match. The Patriots’ pass defense is tough with good pressure and fine turns. Ryan could be in another tough game after last week’s Cowboys debacle. You can bet New England will also be planning to take their best remaining target out of the game, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts.
Will Jones roll again or will Ryan bounce back?
Speaking of Ryan, he’s done a roller coaster ride in yet another new offense for him which tends to be the case. He has limited protection in addition to lower level weapons, with the exception of Pitts. He should fight the Patriots amoeba intrigue again. Jones should feel pretty comfortable against Dean Pees’ defense, given that Belichick knows all about it. The run will set the pass well for tight end Hunter Henry, wide receiver Kendrick Bourne and others.
Stat that matters
246.2. That’s the average passing yards per game the Falcons defense is giving up. They are not good at controlling quarterbacks which can spread the ball over a variety of wide receivers and also deploy the tight end well. The Patriots qualify as this kind of attack with the young Jones, more and more confident.
Patriots vs Falcons prediction
The Patriots are on fire and with Belichick they tend to deal with so called trap games like this. Belichick possessed the Falcons and that shouldn’t change here opposite Smith. Jones, back near Alabama in Atlanta, hosts another solid game to continue his Rookie of the Year offensive push and, more importantly, bring New England closer to a return to the playoffs.
Patriots 27, Falcons 20