Will Bitcoin see a repeat of November 2018


Bitcoin price persists just below $19,000 at the time of writing, not far from the local low of $18,300. When the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data were released last week, the price of BTC plunged to this price level.

Bitcoin lingering below $19,000. Source: Trading View

Unexpectedly for many, a very quick rebound occurred, catching the shorts off guard. With November 2 – when the FED meets again – in mind, the price of Bitcoin doesn’t have much room to fall below this level at this time. Additionally, a look at the channel suggests that another crash is possible in the near term, although there are positive signals as well.

According At CryptoQuant, a bear market signal appears when the realized price of all long-term holders (blue line) exceeds the realized price of all coins purchased (red line) and when the BTC price falls below the realized price of holders term and the realized price of all parts.

CryptoQuant Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin’s downside potential. Source: CryptoQuant

The analysis concludes that the Bitcoin price has been in a bear market for 124 days. In this regard, the decline from $6,000 to $3,000 is comparable to the decline in price from $30,000 to $18,000, as the percentage decline in the last bear market from $6,000 to $3,000 was 50 %.

That being said, the background may not have been seen yet:

The drop from $30.7k to $18.2k was 41%. A 50% decline from $30,700 would put BTC at $15,000 (-18% from current price). Similar to delta price of $14.7k.

Conflicting on-chain data for Bitcoin

Along with Santiment, another big on-chain analytics service said the Bitcoin market should ideally see accumulation for the time being, while smaller traders remain bearish and spread doom.

However, contradictory data appear in this regard. Thus, small and medium Bitcoin addresses (with 0.1 to 10 BTC) recently reached an all-time high of 15.9% of the available supply. At the same time, whales with 100-10,000 BTC saw a 3-year low of 45.6% supply.

On the bullish side, Bitcoin saw a massive outflow of coins from exchanges on October 18th. Santiment recorded the highest daily volume in 4 months, amounting to 40,572 BTC. With that, the coin supply on all exchanges dropped to 8.48%. This means that the risk of a future sale has at least somewhat diminished.

Bitcoin Santiment Data
Bitcoin exchange supply at 4-year low. Source: Twitter

Bullish data is also reported by the third major on-chain data provider Glassnode. The supply of bitcoins which has not moved in the last 6 months is approaching an all-time low. It currently stands at 18.12% of the circulating supply, or approximately 3.485 million BTC. glass knot writing:

Historically, very low volumes of mobile supply typically occur after prolonged bear markets.

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, recently cited the old adage of a trader, “Never short a boring market,” which may apply to the Bitcoin market now more than ever.

According to his analysis, realized volatility, i.e. backwardness or actual volatility, is at a 2-year low and registering one of the lowest levels ever.

Markets are bottoming on apathy, not excitement. BTC and ETH are listless. The S&P 500 is almost the opposite, as prices move like a video game. This could also be another sign of the breakdown of the close TradFi/Crypto relationship. If so, that is long-term bullish for the crypto.

Divergent volatility could therefore be a sign of this change and eventually trigger a long-term positive trend.


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